A large deviation principle for Dirichlet posteriorsA

Let X k be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables taking values in a compact metric space , and consider the problem of estimating the law of X 1 in a Bayesian framework. A conjugate family of priors for non-parametric Bayesian inference is the Dirichlet process priors popularized by Ferguson. We prove that if the prior distribution is Dirichlet, then the sequence of posterior distributions satisses a large deviation principle, and give an explicit expression for the rate function. As an application, we obtain an asymptotic formula for the predictive probability of ruin in the classical gambler's ruin problem.